“Are you better off than you were four years ago?” — Ronald Reagan, 1980
If you have seen the “Reagan” movie currently in theaters, one of the highlights is his debate with Jimmy Carter when he asked the question, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Most Americans answered “no” and voted Reagan into office. It was a smart decision, as Reaganomics led America into a new era of prosperity and a bull market in stocks and bonds that lasted 40 years.
The same question came up in the beginning of Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
The ABC moderator asked Harris, “How do you respond to the question, ‘Are Americans better off than they were four years ago?’”
When she dodged the question, Trump had the chance to pounce and say, “She didn’t answer the question, and the reason is because everyone knows they are not better off!”
He could have talked about the renewed bout of inflation, the slowing job market, threatened regulations on household appliances and new foreign wars. But he didn’t! Instead, he went on a rant about his own grievances.
Maybe he didn’t want to answer the question because in some ways we ARE better off than four years ago. Remember, in 2020, we were still in the midst of the Covid pandemic, when businesses were shut down, our First Amendment rights to free speech and freedom of assembly and religion were curtailed and we were all forced to wear masks.
I figured Vice President Harris had the advantage at the very beginning when she went over to his side and shook his hand. He wasn’t planning to meet her in the middle. It was a bad omen for Trump. The old angry Trump came out throughout the lengthy debate.
Immigration, Protectionism and Other Debate Topics
It wasn’t just Harris dodging the questions; it was Trump, too. When he was asked why he didn’t support the immigration bill in Congress earlier this year, he had a great opportunity to tell the American people why it was a bad bill. For example, it allowed up to 5,000 illegal immigrants per week to still come into the country. That’s 260,000 a year.
Trump constantly exaggerated the facts. Trump’s economy was not the best in the history of the country.
Joe Biden is not the worst president ever.
He will not be able to end the Ukraine and Middle East wars before taking office if he wins.
The nation is not going to “hell,” at least not soon. Inflation is coming down, gas prices are falling, corporate profits are high and a recession has been avoided so far.
If the world was doomed like Trump believes, why would the stock market be at an all-time high?
We do know where Trump stands on economic issues. We don’t know about Kamala Harris. She is a chameleon who has flip-flopped on energy policy, taxes and crime. She says her values have not changed — and that’s the scary part. Her values are socialistic if not Marxist, promising equal outcomes (what she calls “equity”) by taxing the successful and expanding the welfare state.
Trump’s economic policies are pretty good overall — tax cuts and deregulation are good for economic growth — but his doubling down on his protectionist tariffs is a disaster.
Despite Trump’s claim, it will increase prices for many items.
Worse, he’s now threatening to double the tariff on all imports to 20%.
How is that going to “Make America Great Again?” Free trade and globalization are two key factors in a rising standard of living. It will undoubtedly mean Americans will need to change jobs, but it will mean better jobs. Oh, ye of little faith!
And when will our leaders deal with the real problems facing America, such as the growing national debt? Watch it grow: U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time (usdebtclock.org).
Who Won the Presidential Debate? It Was a Landslide!
Most people think that Harris surprised everyone and beat Trump in Tuesday night’s presidential debate, thanks in part to the bias of the ABC two moderators.
Election betting odds now have Harris winning the White House in November, 52% to 47%. But the betting odds are notoriously volatile.
Whoever wins is going to have a dramatic impact on your pocketbook and your investments. Get ready!
Two Important Investment Conferences After the November Elections
I will be involved in two investment conferences right after the critical November elections:
EconoSummit, Nov. 9-10, Ahern Hotel, Las Vegas: This will be the first investment conference after the all-important Nov. 5 elections. I’ll be speaking on the impact of the elections on your portfolio. Other speakers include political experts John Fund and top economist Sean Flynn, with more to be announced soon. This ticket, valued at $499, is FREE if you sign up for next year’s FreedomFest, set for June (not July!) 11-14, 2025, at the Palm Springs Convention Center in California. To sign up go to www.freedomfest.com. After you sign up, you will receive a special code to get a free ticket to EconoSummit. For more information, go to www.econosummit.com.
Update on the 50th Anniversary New Orleans Conference
New Orleans 50th Anniversary Investment Conference, Nov. 20-23: I’m excited about New Orleans, host of the grand-daddy of hard-money conferences. It’s after the crucial November elections, so this is a great opportunity to adjust your portfolio. I see that my long-time friend Alex Green, chief investment strategist at the Oxford Club, will be joining me. I’ve been speaking every year at the famous “gold bug” New Orleans conference since 1977, and will give a unique talk, “My Life-Changing Highlights in New Orleans.” Other speakers include James Grant, Gary Alexander, Robert Prechter, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden and Brien Lundin. (See picture above of all the other speakers.) It will be memorable. Sign up now before the early bird discount ends this month! To register, click here.
Good investing, AEIOU,
Mark Skousen
You Nailed it!
Can Elephants Dance? Big Blue’s Turnaround
By Mark Skousen
“My leadership style is to get people to fear staying in place, to fear not changing.” — Lou Gerstner Jr.
I have a long history with International Business Machines (IBM), known as Big Blue.
Their executives contacted me in the early 1980s after reading my Bantam paperback, “High Finance on a Low Budget.” It offered easy ways to start investing with as little as $100. I did a nationwide tour with the book and sold a quarter of a million copies. (The highlight was appearing on the news show “LA Today” with host Regis Philbin.)
When I arrived at headquarters in Armonk, New York, I was told that IBM was having problems with their employees depending too much on the company’s generous medical, retirement and other benefit programs. They asked me to create a personal finance course to help thousands of IBM employees to save, invest, avoid wasteful spending and unnecessary credit card debt and become more financially independent.
After several months of hard work, my team and I came up with a personal finance course on CD rom. IBM executives were pleased with our training program but insisted that we make it clear in the first slide that IBM has a policy of permanent employment. Once an IBM employee, always an IBM employee.
Years later, I realized that’s what IBM’s problem was. There was little or no incentive to work hard and be creative. Employees were guaranteed lifetime employment, and didn’t need to take risks. They were too dependent on IBM’s generous welfare program.
Despite our efforts, IBM continued to face serious troubles and threatened bankruptcy in the early 1990s.
Their board hired an outsider, Lou Gerstner Jr., as CEO, who immediately downsized the company, laid off thousands of workers and revised its basic business model. He took a lot of risks, but as he said, “Watch the turtle. He only moves forward by sticking his neck out.”
It was only then that IBM returned to its glory years — by incentivizing its employees and appealing to new commercial customers. Gerstner proved that “Elephants Can Dance,” the title of his memoir.
It took a while, but today, a new dynamic Big Blue is making waves, and the stock is now hitting new highs. It is facing stiff competition from Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, but the outlook for IBM as an AI leader is positive. Big Blue is back!
