“Never underestimate the size of a panic, nor the power of the politician.” — Harry D. Schultz (“Maxims of Wall Street,” p. 111)
Special Alert: Trump’s Tariff-ying Trade War is not over! Gold is best safe haven, and our FreedomFest conference in the “Golden State” is the place to be! See details below.
Last week, proclaiming April 2 as “Liberation Day,” the President announced the largest increase in tariffs in 100 years.
This chart says it all:
President Donald Trump insisted that his hard-nosed tariffs would be permanent and could not be reversed. “My policies will never change!” he exclaimed.
Nobody could change his mind. Business leaders like Elon Musk and Bill Ackman tried to convinced him that the massive tax increase would result in stagflation.
Pollsters told him his polling numbers were dropping sharply, down to a 44% approval rating.
But nothing worked to change the mind of this stubborn leader.
Suddenly, a Crisis Appeared on Wall Street
Then something new developed, so powerful he couldn’t ignore.
The Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent entered the Oval Office yesterday morning with a warning: a monetary crisis was developing in the bond market.
Suddenly, there was a sharp sell-off in U.S. government bonds. Investors typically rush to Treasuries as a safe haven. But this time, they feared that Trump’s tariffs were so aggressive that they would be highly inflationary. Bond holders hate inflation.
So bondholders panicked and sold T-bonds and switched to gold, the ultimate inflation hedge, which was rising fast by $3,100 an ounce. Bond yields suddenly jumped to over 5%, and were headed higher.
With the Treasury Department planning to refinance billions of government securities, the risk of super high rates was a serious threat.
As one reporter stated, “The growing alarm inside the Treasury Department over developments in the bond market was a central factor in Trump’s decision to hit pause on his ‘reciprocal’ tariff regime, according to three people familiar with the matter.”
President Trump had no choice. To avoid a monetary crisis, he had to pause his tariff-ying plans for at least 90 days. If he were smart, he would end them completely.
Otherwise, the most recent crisis on Wall Street will come back with a vengeance.
Bond Market Rules
Bond traders are more powerful than you think. The bond market is significantly larger than the stock market; the size of the global bond market is estimated to be $140.7 trillion, compared to a global stock market capitalization of $115 trillion.
The last thing you want to do is spook the bond market. Bondholders can always switch to gold, the ultimate inflation and crisis hedge, or to Bitcoin. (Both are recommended in my newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies.)
Globalization is here to stay. The sooner the President recognizes this fact, the sooner this chaos will end, and Americans can get back to what they are best at: building successful businesses and producing more and more goods and services, from around the world.
The Trade War Debate is Far From Over
The Big Debate is on, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. President Trump has postponed but did not cancel his ill-conceived trade war.
Americans are asking: Will Trump’s Trade War lead to a new “Golden Age” of prosperity and Make America Great Again, or will it cause economic stagnation and permanent damage to our relationship with our allies?
Supporters say, “It’s about time a President addressed unfair trading tactics that left us without jobs and factories!”
Critics warned, “Look for more inflation and the threat of recession!”
Can the President be trusted after his dramatic reversal on tariffs and growing turmoil in the bond and stock markets?
Another new issue: Is Donald Trump abusing his Constitutional powers with executive orders, or is he another General Patton, leading the world to victory?
The fight is still on, especially between China, America’s largest trading partner.
One thing is certain: Every day there is a new twist to this story that affects everyone, both here and abroad.
FreedomFest has the Answer!
What to do?
The Global Economic Summit and three-day Investment Conference at FreedomFest is your ticket to THE ANSWER you’ve been seeking: What should YOU do to survive and prosper during the turbulent Trump Era?
On June 11-14 in Palm Springs, California, we are gathering the world’s best geo-political experts to unravel the secrets of Donald Trump’s mind and help you make the right decisions in business and in your investment portfolio.
Steve Forbes, Editor-in-Chief of Forbes.com and co-ambassador of FreedomFest, will be onsite the entire time, and will speak on “Can manufacturing Really Come Back to America? Did We Benefit or Lose from Globalization and Free Trade?”
He states, “FreedomFest is the best place in the world to find out what is going on in the world, and what you can do about. I wouldn’t miss it for the world.”
Economist and political observer John Fund, long-time writer for both the Wall Street Journal and National Review, has known Donald Trump for 30 years. He will tell you what’s really going on in the White House, the fights between Elon Musk and Peter Navarro and more.
John comes to FreedomFest every year because, as he says, “FreedomFest doesn’t just ride the wave, it invents it.”
Legendary mega-investor Jim Rogers is coming from Singapore to share details about China’s determined fight to beat Trump at his own game. It’s the fourth time he’s made the trip!
Rob Arnott, who manages billions for major Wall Street institutions, comes almost every year, despite his busy schedule. He will give you the inside scoop about what private equity and hedge funds are doing to profit from the Trump tariffs.
Arnott says Americans are reading the wrong book to figure out Trump. Instead of “The Art of the Deal,” you should be reading Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War”! At FreedomFest, Arnott will reveal the four sections of Lao Tzu’s classic that Trump is using to overcome his enemies. (One is to deliberately confuse them.)
You will also hear from foreign experts, including Barbara Kolm, Vice President of the Central Bank of Austria, and Rainer Zitelmann, a top German historian and author of “The Power of Capitalism.” Zitelmann is also the host of our timely Anthem movie, “Vietnam: Beating Poverty with Market Economy.”
I’ll also be moderating a major debate on “Is the National Debt and Deficit a Threat to the Republic?” between Alex Green and Rob Arnott (“Yes!”) and Art Laffer and John Tamny (“No!”).
Don’t Miss Our Three-Day Investment Conference
Our three-day Global Financial Conference is the most important investment event of the year. Our top financial speakers can make a difference in your portfolio and your peace of mind.
Two of Our Top Financial Gurus Avoided the Bear Market
Mike Turner, CEO of Turner Capital Investments, will reveal his rule-based system that capitalizes during both bull and bear markets. His program kept his clients out of the Trump-induced meltdown on Wall Street, and has even made money as the stock market fell. What is he recommending now?
The Eagle Publishing team will be there, including Jim Woods, a 25-year veteran and author of “Successful Investing.” On March 7, his formula executed his “safety switch” and avoided the bloodbath on Wall Street. When will he get back into the market?
In addition, the Eagle team includes estate planning specialist Dave Phillips, tech gurus George Gilder and Richard Vigilante and Hugh Grossman and Jon Johnson, who run the popular DayTradeSPY’s Trading Room.
Alex Green, the veteran chief financial officer of the Oxford Club, will speak on his new book “The American Dream: Why It’s Still Alive and How to Achieve it,” followed by an autograph session. Several years ago, he debated a critic who said the American Dream was dead. Alex rejected his doomsday thesis and won 100% of the attendees’ votes, an unprecedented achievement in FreedomFest history.
Special Announcement: It’s Been 15 Years Since This Prophetic Speaker Has Appeared Publicly…
Rick Maybury, publisher of the highly respected U.S. & World Early Warning Report and author of “Uncle Eric” financial books, has thousands of devoted followers. Van Simmons, my favorite coin dealer and a regular at FreedomFest, tells me that 50 of his wealthiest clients read Maybury’s Early Warning Report religiously.
His most famous book is “Whatever Happened to Penny Candy?” It reveals the #1 threat to your wealth today: Inflation and the depreciating dollar. It’s gotten so bad that the government is considering eliminating the penny from circulation.
Rick has not spoken publicly in 15 years. Good news: He is breaking his silence at this year’s FreedomFest! You won’t want to miss the opportunity to hear the “early warnings” he sees today.
Finally, I’ll be giving an important message for all investors entitled “The Lazy Man’s Way to Riches: My Five Favorite ‘Buy and Hold’ Stocks that Beat the Market in the Long Term.” These five investments have consistently beat the market while cushioning the fall during bear markets.
I’m also doing a Saturday breakfast talk (June 14) on “Amazing Graphs: 10 Shocking Charts for Investors and All Americans.” It’s selling out fast.
Finally, don’t forget our keynote speakers, Fox News’s Kat Timpf… podcaster Adam Carolla… and motivational speaker and stoic Ryan Holiday. (Investors may need his advice this year!)
Register Now and Save $100 Off the Retail Price
FreedomFest is only two months away! I urge you to sign up now and join us to learn, network, and celebrate liberty. To register, go to www.freedomfest.com, or call Hayley at 1-855-850-3733, ext 202. Use code Eagle to get $100 off the retail price.
Be sure to take advantage of our room block at the Renaissance Hotel next to the Palm Springs Convention Center. It is selling out.
See you in Palm Springs!
Yours for peace, prosperity, and liberty, AEIOU,
Mark Skousen
You Nailed It!
by Mark Skousen
Barbara Kolm Interviews Me on My Career, Austrian Economics and the Trade War a Year Before It Started!
At last year’s FreedomFest in Las Vegas (in July 2024), I was interviewed by Barbara Kolm, the director of the Austrian Economics Center, for 25 minutes: Mark Skousen on FreedomFest, Economic Innovation, and the Case for Gross Output
It’s a free ranging interview on a variety of topics — my personal life, why I started FreedomFest, the speakers at last year’s conference (especially Lord Matt Ridley and Harvard’s Stephen Pinker, both top public intellectuals), the introduction of my macro statistic Gross Output (GO)… and interestingly, FreedomFest this year in Palm Springs and my concern about tariffs and the loss of free trade that is so relevant a year later in 2025.
Barbara Kolm will be at this year’s FreedomFest and will join me on a panel to discuss a new film on the life of Carl Menger, the founder of the Austrian school of economics. Part of the film will be shown at the Anthem film festival, followed by a panel discussion.
