The Rally in Gold — Own Some and Trade Some

The bullish case for gold in 2026 is built on a perfect storm of structural demand and macroeconomic shifts. After a historic 2025, where gold has risen approximately 60% as of the close last Friday ($4,387 per ounce), several major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America have set price targets between $4,900 and $5,000+ per ounce for late 2026.

The most powerful driver is the structural shift in central bank behavior. Emerging market central banks (notably China, India, Turkey and BRICS nations) are aggressively diversifying away from the U.S. dollar. Central banks have become steady, high-volume accumulators. J.P. Morgan projects central bank demand to stay elevated at roughly 755 tonnes in 2026.

Tonnes are a metric measure equaling to 2,204.6 pounds. When mining companies report their production, they almost always use metric tonnes.

As we enter 2026, concerns over sticky inflation and skyrocketing global debt are intensifying. Bank of America highlights “unorthodox U.S. fiscal policy” and rising debt-to-GDP ratios as primary reasons for its $5,000 target. Investors view gold as the only credible hedge against currency debasement.

Ongoing trade tensions and tariffs are expected to keep upward pressure on consumer prices, sustaining gold’s role as a store of value. Goldman Sachs predicts that falling interest rates will force institutional investors to compete with central banks for limited physical bullion. J.P. Morgan expects 250 tonnes of ETF inflows in 2026 alone. As the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle, it puts pressure on the dollar as well as other currencies where rates are falling.

The gold market is facing a physical supply squeeze. It takes 10 to 20 years to bring a new mine to production. Current high prices cannot immediately trigger new supply, creating a bottleneck effect. Increasing lease rates in late 2025 signal that physical metal is becoming harder to source for delivery, providing a firm floor for prices.

In the context of the 2026 gold outlook, the term “Doom Loop” specifically refers to a high-risk scenario popularized by the World Gold Council (WGC) and major investment banks. A Doom Loop is a self-reinforcing cycle where one negative event triggers another, which then circles back to make the first event even worse. It is the financial version of a downward spiral.

According to the WGC’s 2026 outlook, this is a scenario where global instability becomes “synchronized.” A new flashpoint or an escalation in trade wars/regional conflicts erodes global confidence. As confidence fades, businesses stop investing and households stop spending. This slows the global economy, which increases social and political unrest, leading to more protectionist policies and conflict.

In this specific “Doom Loop,” the U.S. dollar often softens and bond yields fall sharply as the Fed cuts rates to save the economy. This creates a perfect vacuum where gold is the only perceived safe asset. The WGC estimates gold could surge 15% to 30% in this environment.

Aside from potential geopolitical risks, which the market has shown a pattern of discounting and disregarding, a potential sovereign debt Doom Loop scenario is clearly on the minds of gold bulls and forex traders. Forex (short for Foreign Exchange) is the global marketplace where national currencies are traded against one another. It is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, with a daily trading volume exceeding $7.5 trillion — far larger than the stock market.

Governments have too much debt and high-interest payments increase the budget deficit, requiring governments to borrow even more money. To prevent a total collapse, central banks print money to buy the government’s debt (also known as: Quantitative Easing). This printing can trigger monetary inflation, which makes investors demand higher interest rates to compensate for the lost value of the currency. The more they print to solve the debt, the more they destroy the currency, requiring them to print even more.

To reverse this line of thinking, some major things have to occur. Gold is priced globally in U.S. dollars and therefore there is a strong inverse relationship between the two. If the U.S. economy grows significantly faster than the rest of the world in 2026, and progress is made on the $38 trillion federal debt, the dollar will strengthen. As the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for international buyers (using Euros, Yen or Yuan), which naturally suppresses global demand and lowers the price.

Geopolitical de-escalation can also bring down the price of gold. If major ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East can reach a stable diplomatic resolution in 2026, the “fear bid” that currently supports gold prices would greatly diminish. Also, if trade wars between the U.S. and China stabilize, the need for central banks to hold gold as a “sanction-proof” asset would likely decrease.

These scenarios are a big ask for sentiment to change regarding gold’s intermediate-term bullish outlook. At www.bryanperryinvesting.com we own gold and trade gold in various instruments. Gold is a volatile asset, and while the trend is bullish, there are excellent trading opportunities. Check out the various advisory services I manage and treat yourself to an early holiday gift by becoming a member. Merry Christmas!

P.S. I’ll be off next week, so the next issue will come out in 2026.