Tariffs, TJX and Testosterone

I love it when questions come my way, but for reasons you may not suspect. You see, when I get questions from you, The Deep Woods reader, they often force me to think about issues that I may not have chewed on deeply enough yet, and certainly not deeply enough to provide the kind of answers that you deserve.

This week, I received multiple questions on our lead subject President Trump’s latest retreat on tariffs. I’ve also recently received a couple of interesting, specific questions from readers. So, that means it’s time again for another edition of one of my favorite issue formats, “Ask Me Anything.”

Now, as you likely know if you’ve been reading my work for more than just a brief period, I am completely opposed to tariffs, both in practice and in concept.

Tariffs are nothing more than taxes levied on Americans to get us to alter our behavior in favor of a political objective. They don’t make the country great, rich or better. They punish us for our freedom of choice, and I am opposed, both practically and philosophically, to their very existence.

So, when I received the following question from reader Steven M., well, you likely won’t be surprised at my answer: “Jim, what say you about the tariff rollbacks on food products last week? Do you think this could be the beginning of a Trump turnaround on this issue?”

Now, I know Steven personally, and he’s a man of omnipresent optimism and deep intelligence. So, Steven, in regards to the latter half of your question, unfortunately I do not think this is evidence of a philosophic Trump turnaround on this issue. The president has been an ardent and always-vociferous proponent of tariffs going back to the 1980s, when Japan was seen as the boogeyman of the United States in terms of global economic influence. Indeed, his pro-tariff stance isn’t likely to be altered; however, I do think that the President can see for himself just how much the tariffs are hurting consumers, particularly when it comes to the prices we all pay at the grocery store.

I don’t know about you, but I have seen my grocery bills surge of late, and substantially. Perhaps my costs are rising more than others because I happen to like all of the things that are being tariffed the most right now, including beef, coffee and fruit. Oh, and I also love wine and spirits, which are also being taxed to the point where they’re beginning to crush America’s small liquor businesses.

Now, there’s been no reprieve here for wine and spirits, but at least there was a rollback on beef, coffee, fruits, nuts and more than a hundred common food items, undertaken via executive order last Friday. Yet, why would the president need to do this? Well, it’s obvious. It’s because tariffs always increase costs.

Sometimes, the importers “eat” the tariffs and don’t pass on the costs directly to consumers. Sometimes, consumers get hit directly, as importers raise their prices as high as they can to compensate for the tax (i.e. tariff) they now have to give to Uncle Sam. In both cases, tariffs increase costs, transfer wealth from individuals to government and generally stymie economic activity and shrink the economy.

So, Steven, as long as tariffs are a tool of consumer control, I will be opposed to them, both in practical terms and philosophically. And while I share your general sense of optimism, I remain a skeptic on any change of heart from the White House on tariffs, although I’ll be very happy to be proven wrong.

Joey R. writes: “I saw this morning that TJX Cos. beat on the top and bottom lines. They also said holiday sales are off to a strong start. Is this a stock to own, and what do you make of these results in terms of the big picture and the economy?”

Very good question, Joey, and it’s one that piqued my interest today as well. The reason why is because I use TJX Cos. (TJX), operators of discount retailers TJ Maxx, Marshalls and Home Goods, as a kind of economic bellwether. You see, when times are tight, and when consumer pocketbooks are pressured, smart shoppers go to these stores.

The fact that the off-price chain’s sales rose 7% during the quarter, along with the comments by CEO Ernie Herrman that the holiday shopping season is off to a “strong start,” tells me other retailers such as Target (TGT), Kohl’s (KSS), Macy’s (M) and others might be feeling the pressure going into the holiday season. Walmart (WMT) will likely be ok, as they almost always are, and high-end retailers and luxury goods sellers will likely also be ok, as they usually are.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Yet, TJX Cos. might be the sweet spot here, both in terms of a potential stock play and as a place to go shopping this season, as CEO Herrman also said, “The availability of merchandise continues to be outstanding, and we are excited about the deals we are seeing in the marketplace.” Herrman added that the company’s brands are “strongly positioned as gifting destinations for value-conscious shoppers this holiday season.”

I agree. So, if you see me at a TJ Maxx this holiday season, come up and say hello!

Finally, I received a very flattering question from reader John N., who I saw recently in person during my visit to Palm Beach, Florida. “Jim, how do you stay so fit and strong at age 60? What’s your secret?”

After blushing a bit at the query, I didn’t have the heart to reveal that I had actually turned 61 in August. Jest aside, the issue of staying fit and strong is an important concern regardless of age, because the fitter and stronger you are, the more things you can do, and the better life you can lead.

My “secret” here is actually no secret at all. It’s all science and effort. The science part of the equation is knowing how to properly workout, meaning knowing how to stimulate skeletal muscle for increased hypertrophy, both safely and effectively. That method is known as high-intensity training, or H.I.T., a practice I’ve been doing since the early 1980s.

This type of training involves brief, but very intense, resistance training using barbells, dumbbells and machines such as Nautilus and other brands. For the definitive work on this topic, I strongly (no put intended) recommend the book, “Body by Science,” by Dr. Doug McGuff and John Little. This is the very best book on science-based exercise that I have ever read, and it’s a must read for any person looking to improve his/her physical well-being.

The second part of the science equation is maintaining a proper hormonal environment, one conducive to muscle retention and growth. Here, I am referring to making sure you have adequate levels (not exorbitantly high levels) of testosterone.

One of the reasons why both men and women tend to shed muscle as we age is because testosterone levels naturally fall. Fortunately, it’s easy to increase one’s testosterone exogenously with the help of a physician. And it can be done safely and effectively, especially when your doctor conducts blood tests regularly to monitor testosterone and other hormone levels. The treatment is aptly called “testosterone replacement therapy,” or TRT.

Your editor, circa 1986, during his peak testosterone phase.

I was first introduced to the effectiveness of hormonal manipulation back in the mid-1980s, when I did, shall we say, “a bit more” than just a modest TRT while competing in bodybuilding contests. The use of exogenous testosterone in a 20-year-old who works out like a madman can result in a competition-level physique (see above), which is something I pursued aggressively during my college years.

Now, I’ve been on normal TRT for many years, and I maintain adequate levels for my age group via the use of weekly testosterone injections. It’s safe, relatively inexpensive and not the least bit invasive, save for a subcutaneous shot once per week. And along with proper H.I.T. strength training, it’s also one of the keys to remaining fit and strong as we age.

I highly recommend strength training in the H.I.T. manner, and I recommend having your testosterone levels checked. If they are low, correct that deficit immediately with TRT.

****************************************************************

Meanwhile the World Goes On

Tell me about despair, yours, and I will tell you mine.

Meanwhile the world goes on.

Meanwhile the sun and the clear pebbles of the rain

are moving across the landscapes,

over the prairies and the deep trees,

the mountains and the rivers.

— Mary Oliver, “Wild Geese”

A friend just posted this poem on social media, and I found it particularly relevant to the way I was feeling the moment I read it. You see, no matter how much grief or despair we may feel, the world doesn’t stop to mourn. It keeps going, oblivious to our tumult and our victories. And while this may seem callous, I think it’s quite liberating, as it means that it’s up to us to find the meaning and purpose that makes each day worth the struggle.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote that you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my newsletters, seminars or anything else. Click here to ask Jim.

In the name of the best within us,

Jim Woods