Small and mid-cap oil and gas stocks to buy gained focus when Citi Research released a March 31 report refreshing its outlook for them.
The small and mid-cap oil and gas stocks (SMIDs) to buy are showing signs of support, with oil and gas prices rising in the wake of the Strait of Hormuz limiting passage only to tankers allowed to proceed by Iran’s military. President Trump said he still is seeking a diplomatic solution and offering Iran until April 6 to open the Strait of Hormuz or face a resumption of attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Citi Research forecasts WTI crude at prices between $74 and $65/bbl. for 2026-27 and natural gas between $3.23 and $3.64/mcf. for the same time frame. The energy sector continues to exhibit strong capital discipline, prioritizing shareholder returns through share buybacks and free cash flow allocation, Citi Research wrote in its research note.
“Operational efficiency and strategic portfolio management are key themes, with companies focusing on maximizing their economic acreage and maintaining high organic reserve replacement levels,” Citi Research continued. “Natural gas weighted producers are emphasizing prudent capital spending and operational flexibility.”
Small and Mid-Cap Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy: Perry’s Perspective
As the war in Iran drags on to week six, the anxiety of a potential global slowdown has entered into investing landscape, wrote Bryan Perry in his Breakout Blue Chip Trader service. What is most interesting is that few Wall Street chief market analysts have trimmed their year-end target for the S&P 500, he added.
The current consensus, median year-end, S&P 500 target for 2026 is approximately 7,650, which implies roughly a 12% gain for the full year, Perry commented. AI industrialization is the primary driver for the sales and earnings optimism, he added.
In support of this view, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the U.S. economy as expanding at a “solid pace,” during remarks at Harvard University on Monday, March 30. The Fed faces a complex balancing act between a softening labor market and renewed inflation risks from the Middle East energy shock, added Perry, who also heads the Cash Machine investment newsletter that averages a dividend yield of more than 10% in his 28 current positions.
Powell said the central bankers would take a wait-and-see approach, adding that even though the Fed is committed to its 2% inflation target, uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran means interest rates could realistically move in either direction. So, the market remains in flux with evidence of fund managers trimming positions in growth stocks, Perry advised members of his Breakout Blue Chip Trader that recommends both stocks and options.
Perry recommended a large-cap energy company in his latest Breakout Blue Chip Trader update. But as the adage goes, good things also can come in small packages.
Bryan Perry heads Breakout Blue Chip Trader.
Small and Mid-Cap Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy: Wisdom from Woods
One thing to know is that when a stock is in a sector that’s outpacing the rest of the market, and at least in part due to obvious reasons such as the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then it deserves tactical attention, wrote Jim Woods, who heads the Tactical Trader advisory service. Woods recommended a little-known oil stock on Tuesday, March 31, that does have need to use tankers that must traverse through the Strait of Hormuz.
“So, it’s no surprise that this stock has caught a bid, especially considering the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude is now north of $103,” Woods continued. “Yet it’s not just a war bid that’s driving [it].”
Paul Dykewicz meets with Jim Woods, head of Tactical Trader.
During the past three years, the stock is in the top 1% of all companies on an earnings-per-share (EPS) growth basis, Woods said. That stock recently formed a cup-with-handle share price pattern, with the cup starting in late January and continuing to mid-March. Then the handle spiked through March 31 with no signs of slowing, he informed his Tactical Trader advisory service members.
Woods recommended a different energy stock in February that is trading profitability, despite the market’s general pullback since Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment activities led Israel and the United States to take miliary action to address the looming threat. With Iran attacking Israel, U.S. miliary bases in the region and its Persian Gulf neighbors while blocking most shipments that normally would use the Strait of Hormuz for transit, Woods is recommending two oil stocks that operate in the Western Hemisphere far from Iran and its dangerous drones and missiles.
In addition, Woods is recommending two additional oil stocks in his Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter. As a former Army officer and paratrooper, Woods uses his military background in making his investment recommendations.
Small and Mid-Cap Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy: AR
Natural gas companies such as Denver-based Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) are planning to ramp up capital expenditures, Citi Research forecast. Despite the small scale of Antero Resources, Citi Research is projecting the stock to reach a price target of $53 per share. But the investment firm is not alone in seeing bright skies ahead for AR.
“Over the past several months, Antero Resources (AR) has made several strategic moves,” Michelle Connell, who heads Dallas-based Portia Capital Management.
In late 2025, AR announced a $2.8 billion acquisition of HG Energy’s upstream assets for $2.8 billion. The company will also be acquiring HG Energy’s midstream assets for $1.1 billion.
“Given the inability to transport LNG though the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting 85% increase in this commodity, AR’s timing could not have been better,” Connell counseled.
Before the Middle East conflict occurred, AR was projected to generate free cash flow of $10 billion in 2026, Connell continued. Now, investors could reasonably expect this estimate to a “large understatement,” she added.
“Many energy analysts believe AR’s current stock price is undervalued and could see upside of 20-30% over the next twelve months,” Connell said.
Michelle Connell heads Portia Capital Management.
Citi Research rates AR as a buy and wrote in its March 31 research note that company stacks up well against peers with competitive drilling results, strong pricing realizations, ample capacity and solid financial metrics. The company’s share-price correlation to the underlying commodity price remains high, and Citi Research forecasts “long-expected catalysts” coming closer to reality.
Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
Small and Mid-Cap Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy: PR
Midland, Texas-base Persian Resources Corp (NYSE: PR) is a leader amongst the SMIDs, Citi Research wrote. Geopolitical events are driving price volatility across the commodities, which will continue to have tangible impacts throughout our coverage, the investment firm wrote.
“We favor the company’s strong and well-cultivated acreage position on which it has produced solid well-level drilling results with additional opportunity for improvement,” Citi Research wrote. “We expect leverage to remain manageable through the cycle.”
“Their company’s free cash flow production is expected to be sufficient to grow shareholder returns in most plausible scenarios, beginning with the base-dividend and an additional prospect of share buybacks and variable dividends,” the investment firm wrote.
Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
Small and Mid-Cap Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy: MTDR
As for Dallas-based Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR), Citi Research rates it a buy and boosted its target price on the stock to $77 per share, up from $62 per share. At the new target level, Citi Research forecasts free cash flow of about 9.1% through the end of the year that should stay in the high single-digit percentages through the foreseeable future.
“We anticipate some measure of action on their midstream assets in coming quarters but also anticipate a strong oil growth trajectory and further gains in drilling efficiencies, Citi Research wrote.
Matador Resources stacks up well against peers with resilient drilling results, the benefits of vertical integration and improving capital management, Citi Research wrote. This is balanced against the likely persistence of a discount for their scale and an opaque view toward the timing of the market’s recognition of the value of San Mateo and the company’s midstream assets, the investment firm added.
Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.
Small and Mid-Cap Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy: Alternative to Stocks
“The current war in Iran actually started with the 1979 Islamic Revolution,” said Hugh Grossman, the leader of the DayTrade SPY options trading room. “The central, state-sanctioned change followed the November 4, 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the subsequent 444-day hostage crisis, symbolizing opposition to U.S. policies. In chanting ‘Death to America,’ perhaps President Jimmy Carter should have finished off the conflict at that time, but Americans, being the patient society we are, graciously kicked the problem down the road. Decades later, Iran has developed — ironically with the financial, military and technological help from America — the means to seriously threaten us.
“President Trump had little choice but to end this relentless threat once and for all, not to mention the horrific slaughters the current regime did to their own people. Geopolitical conflicts can have far-reaching effects on the stock market. Initially, the resilient market shrugged off the first attack on Tehran. Where we will see the effects will be in the increased price of oil as Iran escalates its threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil supplies, but this I expect to be short-lived. Oil increases in price, creates inflation and a threat to interest rates, which is why SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) has dropped so dramatically in the days following the attack. As nervous investors sit on the sidelines, I doubt we will see longer-term devastating effects. The economy is still fundamentally strong with consumers and businesses driving solid economic growth. What is also different this time, as opposed to prior tightening of oil supplies as seen in the 1973 oil embargo, the U.S. became a net energy exporter in 2001.”
Grossman and his partner Jon Johnson have an options trading success rate with the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust NYSE: SPY) of more than 83%. With the market showing volatility, Grossman describes the DayTrade SPY options trading room as a good alternative to stocks right now.
Paul Dykewicz, www.pauldykewicz.com, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, the Journal of Commerce, Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus and other publications and websites. Paul is the editor of StockInvestor.com and DividendInvestor.com, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is the editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul previously served as business editor of Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper. Paul also is the author of an inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. Follow Paul on Twitter @PaulDykewicz.
