Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin funds shine amid rising risks and a falling U.S. dollar.

The gleam of gold, silver and bitcoin funds offer potentially profitable paths as the latest federal government indicates economic growth could be waning and U.S. dollar is weakening. In addition, the risk of a recession is rising, based on the federal government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reporting second-real quarter gross output (GO) on Thursday, Sept. 25, which showed inflation-adjusted GO “lagged significantly” behind real GDP expansion, Mark Skousen, PhD, wrote to subscribers of his October 2025 Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter.

Skousen wrote an op-ed in the Sept. 29 Wall Street Journal, titled “Beneath the GDP, a Recession Warning.” The subtitle reported, “Business spending dropped sharply in the second quarter. Blame the trade war.”

In the op-ed, Skousen noted that while consumer spending is still robust, rising 2.8% in real terms during the second quarter, business (B2B) spending fell sharply at 5.6% during the quarter, largely due to ongoing trade wars. Gross output (GO) measures spending at all stages of production, not just the final one as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Another risk is that the U.S. government is in danger of running out of money for normal operations at midnight, Sept. 30. Attempts to reach a compromise to continue funding the government have proven unsuccessful so far.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks: Rate Reductions

The U.S. stock market currently is aided by a recent Fed interest rate cut and expectations of others later this year. A 1/4% interest rate cut approved by the Fed approval on Sept. 17 could be followed by another two or three reductions during the rest of 2025, prognosticators forecast.

Gross output measures spending at all stages of production, and inflation-adjusted real GO expanded 1.2% in the second quarter. Despite the result normally serving as a positive sign of future economic growth, GO growth slipped and trailed real GDP second-quarter expansion of 3.8%, indicating an economy struggling to gain at full speed, Skousen wrote.

“Economic data seems to be indicating that Trump’s trade war is finally having deliriously negative effects on business,” Skousen cautioned.

The latest reduction brings the Federal Funds Rate’s target range to 4-4.25%. The Fed indicated in its Summary of Economic Projections that it may continue cutting rates in 2026 and 2027, but at a slow pace, with projections indicating a 3.4% rate by the end of 2026 and 3.1% by year-end 2027.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks: Skousen’s Strategies

The Fed’s interest rate easing is aimed at combating a slowing in the labor market and may end up increasing inflation, cautioned Mark Skousen, who heads the TNT Trader advisory service as well as the Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter.

“The markets — both stocks and gold — reacted favorably and we sent out two Special Alerts last week to sell some of our options for big gains,” Skousen wrote to his TNT Trader subscribers in his Sept. 23 advisory service report. “We are currently profitable in all five of our short-term recommendations.”

Mark Skousen, head of TNT Trader and Forecasts & Strategies, meets with Paul Dykewicz.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks: GOLD

In another Skousen advisory service, Five Star Trader, its subscribers just closed out nearly a 50% profit through a recommendation in IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG). The stock recommendation produced a 49% gain to subscribers.

Whenever a stock or fund stops out of a Skousen trading service like Five Star Trader or TNT Trader, the subscribers are advised to sell related options as soon as possible. Those who did so with the last portion of IAG call options achieved a 200% gain, averaging a return of 83% on all of the IAG call option trades.

However, the trend remains a friend for rising gold prices. Unfortunately, IAMGOLD is not a dividend payer. But Skousen’s Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter is recommending dividend-paying Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC; TSX: K), of Toronto. The gold and silver mining company could interest investors who want exposure to gold and silver.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks: Connell Counsels

A need exists for investors to diversify with gold and bitcoin and even other cryptocurrencies, said Michelle Connell, who heads Dallas-based Portia Capital Management.

Investors should incorporate three additional risks into their portfolio allocations: the devaluation of the U.S. dollar and declining domestic interest rates and record-high valuations for US equities, Connell said. Connell advised me that an allocation to gold is smart right now. She also likes exposure to cryptocurrency for up to 5% of one’s holdings for some of her Portia Capital Management clients.

Michelle Connell heads Portia Capital Management.

“Lower interest rates may lead to the continued decline of the U.S. dollar,” Connell commented. “As interest rates go down, the rate that the U.S. Treasury securities pay goes down as well. The result is a declining dollar.”

The dollar has already gone down 10% this year, Connell continued. That’s a reversal of the last 15 years when the U.S. dollar was in a bull market, she added.

“Strategists are predicting that 2026 will see a continuation of this new bear market for our currency,” Connell warned. “The above risks should lead investors to the conclusion that they need diversification.”

Establishing or creating new allocations to gold and bitcoin would be prudent, Connell continued.

“Golden mining stocks have much higher volatility and price swings as compared to physical gold,” Connell counseled.  “So it makes sense to own the commodity itself. However, most of us don’t want to find a custodian for gold bars. For individual investors,  GraniteShares’ Gold Trust ETF (ARCX: BAR), would be an economical way to invest. BAR owns 100% physical gold that is custodied in a London vault. BNY Mellon is the trustee and the vault is inspected twice a year. The fee is a very low 0.1749%.”

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks: White Hot?

Another way to gain exposure to silver is through a fund that was successfully recommended by Jim Woods in his Crypto & Commodities Trader advisory service. Woods, who also heads the Investing Edge newsletter, recommended the Global X Silver Miners (SIL) and produced a 19.53% gain in just 42 days for subscribers of Crypto & Commodities Trader.

Silver has been on the upswing and offers a second precious metal to buy and hold for profits, along with gold. Crypto & Commodities Trader offers both stock and option recommendations. The options also offer traders a chance to reap enhanced rewards faster than stocks, but come with heightened risk for those who can justify it.

Woods likes to use a strategy of raising stop prices to lock in gains for his subscribers, in chance a recommendation pulls back. If the position rises, he a boost the stock price upward again.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks: Bitcoin

Skousen’s Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter has a blockchain holding, Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (NYSE Arca: BLOK). The exchange-traded fund (ETF) is up 156.12% since its recommendation on December 4, 2023.

BLOK also could appeal to income lovers with its 4.41% current dividend yield. Blockchain technology is a decentralized, distributed ledger that records transactions across multiple computers to prevent any alteration retroactively. The technology is regarded as the backbone of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

A way to invest directly in Bitcoin is through an income-providing investment recommended by Michelle Connell, who heads Dallas-based Portia Capital Management. Connell advised me that an allocation to cryptocurrency of up to 5% makes sense for some of her Portia Capital Management clients.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.

However, risk management of these new assets is needed, Connell counseled. That explains her cautious approach to investing in cryptocurrencies, causing her to weigh in with cryptocurrency ETFs that have cover calls and other forms of downside protection, while still providing upside participation and income.

Connell, who has managed money for Morgan City, Louisiana, 85 miles from New Orleans, has produced sufficient investment returns by helping to manage the community’s largest foundation to fund the schools, the fire department, the police department and other services, as well as the construct a new youth center. Despite her risk-averse philosophy in protecting and growing a municipality’s resources to support critical services, Connell praised diversification and the opportunity for upside from putting some money into cryptocurrencies.

Chart courtesy of finance.yahoo.com.

“In the past three years, Bitcoin has made almost 150%,” Connell told me.

In the last year, the cryptocurrency has topped 77%. But Bitcoin’s climb has slowed so far this year and is up about 20%, Connell continued.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks: Bitcoin Bull

When those results are combined Bitcoin’s maximum “draw down” over the past three years has been almost 30%, even though the cryptocurrency rose during that time overall. Many people get nervous and cannot hold onto something when a loss occurs, she added.

“As a Bitcoin investor, if you can minimize your downside to 15% and still make 30% on the upside, wouldn’t you be interested? That’s what I’m asking clients now.”

If the investment were to “behave similar” to its past performance, an investor would be capturing most of the cryptocurrency’s recent upside and minimizing your losses by quite a bit, Connell counseled.

Chart courtesy of finance.yahoo.com.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Funds Shine Amid Rising Risks: Geopolitical Risk

President Trump did not shed much new light during his remarks before the United Nations General Assembly this week on the ongoing wars, but he offered criticism of Europe.

“Immigration and their suicidal energy ideas will be the death of Western Europe,” Trump said. “Illegal aliens are pouring into Europe.”

Earlier in the week, Trump spoke positively about Ukraine potentially regaining some of the territory that it has lost from Russia’s 3 1/2-year invasion of its neighboring nation.  Trump met with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York for about an hour. A regaining of Ukraine’s sovereign territory would be a daunting pursuit amid fierce opposition from war instigator Russia.

In a social media post on Truth Social, Trump wrote, “After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”

The upbeat comments were a marked change from his prior position of urging Ukraine’s leaders to give up land for peace. However, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has been holding out for gaining even more of Ukraine’s territory, despite suffering massive losses of military members and machinery.

President Trump’s repeated efforts to find a peaceful end of the war have proven unsuccessful thus far. With Europe and NATO expressing a willingness to back Ukraine to the extent that is needed, Trump may hope Putin and his fellow leaders in Russia could be swayed to accept economic relief to end a war that keeps causing deaths, injuries and destruction.

Paul Dykewicz, www.pauldykewicz.com, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, the Journal of Commerce, Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus and other publications and websites. Paul, who can be followed on Twitter @PaulDykewicz, is the editor of StockInvestor.com and DividendInvestor.com, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul previously served as business editor of Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper. Paul also is the author of an inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. The book is great as a gift and is endorsed by Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Ara Parseghian, “Rocket” Ismail, Reggie Brooks, Dick Vitale and many others. Call 202-677-4457 for multiple-book pricing.