Buying into SpaceX Before the IPO

The SpaceX IPO is being forecasted as the “mother of all IPOs,” with a target valuation that would immediately make it one of the most valuable companies in the world. SpaceX is reportedly targeting an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion.

This is nearly double its private secondary market valuation of $800 billion from late 2025. Analysts have pointed out that $1.5 trillion is roughly the current valuation of Tesla, suggesting Musk is positioning SpaceX to become the new flagship of its public universe of assets.

The offering is expected to be record-breaking in terms of the actual capital raised: SpaceX is looking to raise significantly more than $30 billion in new capital.

A power quartet of banks has reportedly been selected to lead the deal: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

While some speculative moonshot dates suggest it could happen as early as June 2026, the company has officially entered a quiet period as of December 2025, which typically precedes a listing by six to twelve months.

Aside from private sales by SpaceX employees over recent years, retail investors that want to own SpaceX without paying a premium over its current valuation can do so by purchasing shares in the Baron Partners Fund (BPTRX).

Co-portfolio managers Ron Baron and Michael Baron manage this unique high-conviction, non-diversified, all-cap growth fund. As founder of Baron Capital, Ron Baron’s New York City based firm that manages the Baron Funds has $45 billion in assets under management. Baron has an estimated net worth of $6.5 billion.

Within the $9.6 billion Baron Partners Fund (BPTRX), Baron has amassed a large position in SpaceX that represents the fund’s largest holding as a percentage of assets (28.6%), with Tesla Inc. (TSLA) as its second largest holding (26.7%).

Following the December 2025 revaluation, where SpaceX was marked up to an $800 billion company-wide valuation, the dollar amount held by BPTRX surged. Because Ron Baron has been buying and holding SpaceX since its early stages, the fund owns millions of shares across several series (including the Series H, I and N).

Much of the SpaceX stock in BPTRX was purchased at a split-adjusted price of roughly $15 to $30 per share. As of January 2026, the fund is valuing those same shares at approximately $135.00 per share (post-split).

A major part of the anticipated $1.5 trillion future valuation of a post IPO SpaceX is based on Space-Based Data Centers. SpaceX is pitching itself as the ultimate infrastructure provider for the AI boom, using Starlink satellites to host “orbital compute” for companies like xAI and OpenAI.

There were long-standing rumors that Musk would spin off Starlink (the satellite internet business) as a separate IPO. However, the 2026 forecast indicates he will likely take the entire company public as one unit. Keeping Starlink and the launch division (Starship) together allows the massive cash flow from Starlink to fund the “Capex burn” of the Mars and Starship programs.

In late 2025 and early 2026, Ron Baron has become much more vocal about the geopolitical risks China poses to his primary investments (Tesla and SpaceX). His conviction that China may move on Taiwan is a relatively new and sharp pivot. He has moved from being neutral/optimistic about China’s market to warning that an invasion would be a “black swan” event for global markets.

He has pointed out that Xi is racing to make China “sanction-proof” by achieving breakthroughs in domestic AI and chips, both of which Xi bragged about in the 2026 speech.

In response to this specific threat, SpaceX is currently ramping up “Starshield” (the military version of Starlink). The U.S. Space Force recently fast-tracked a contract with SpaceX for a 480-satellite “MILNET” constellation, designed specifically for resilient communication in a contested environment (i.e., the Pacific).

There have been recent headlines about Congress pressuring Elon Musk to ensure Starshield is fully active over Taiwan, as it is seen as the only “invade-proof” communication network for U.S. troops in the region. Baron believes Xi sees a strategic window because of U.S. political distractions and China’s recent tech milestones.

In his 2026 New Year’s speech, President Xi Jinping used specific language that Ron Baron (and many geopolitical analysts) interpreted as a transition from long-term aspiration to an active operational objective.

Xi explicitly declared that the reunification of Taiwan is a trend of the times and is now unstoppable. While Xi has used “unstoppable” in the past, he framed it this year not as a distant goal for 2049, but as the immediate next step in China’s national rejuvenation. Baron has noted that when a leader with absolute power uses such definitive, time-sensitive language, it signals that the internal political clock is ticking faster.

The speech heavily promoted the newly institutionalized Taiwan Recovery Day (first established in 2025). By celebrating the 1945 return of Taiwan from Japan to China, Xi is reframing a potential invasion not as a new war, but as the completion of World War II. Baron has suggested that this is psychological conditioning for the Chinese public and a legalistic justification intended to blunt international criticism.

Xi delivered the speech just one day after the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) concluded “Justice Mission 2025,” a massive, 48-hour live-fire exercise that simulated a complete blockade of Taiwan. In the speech, Xi praised the military’s heightened readiness and innovative combat capabilities.

With the more aggressive tone from Xi, it would make sense that the SpaceX IPO happens sooner than later. The capital raise will be gigantic providing funds for the company to fast forward deployment of systems in the military space race.

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