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Nicholas Vardy

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Trading the markets is all about timing. And odds are this week is one where it is best to stand back.

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The market seas in August may be rougher than normal, but it’s still possible to make double-digit percentage gains in these choppy markets.

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The volatility in markets continues. Last week, U.S. markets closed with one of their strongest performances since March, only to give up many of their earlier gains in the market sell off yesterday.

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As financial markets enter into what is traditionally one of the quietest trading weeks of the year, it’s a good time to reassess the state of play in global markets. All financial panics — as opposed to genuine crashes — have one thing in common: they throw the baby out with the bathwater. Right now, global markets are still holding their breath — both waiting for the other shoe to drop while also reassessing opportunities to re-enter the markets on the back of some strong, long-term investment themes.

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What a difference a couple of weeks makes. It seems like only yesterday that we were celebrating, with most of our positions nudging record highs. But by the end of last week, all but one of our picks — Tesco (TDSDY) — had hit their stop prices. Indeed, up until the past week or so, global markets — particularly emerging markets — had weathered much of the recent market turmoil surprisingly well. During the last serious sell off (between May and June 2006), the MSCI Emerging Markets Index had plummeted a whopping 26%. Until last week, the index had barely dropped half that. But that all changed by Thursday, when the index had plummeted over 20% off its highs.

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As volatile as global markets have been recently, some investors may feel like they need a shot of vodka to calm their frayed nerves. And with markets suffering contagion from the fallout of U.S. subprime woes, conventional wisdom dictates a move into conservative sectors like consumer staples that have very low correlation with battered financial stocks. This week’s Global Bull Market Alert pick — Poland’s largest producer and distributor of vodka — offers help on both of these counts.

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