Nicholas Vardy
GLOBAL STOCK INVESTOR HOTLINE UPDATE 58
Potash (POT) hit yet another high this week, as the global shortage in fertilizer begins to hit hard. The stock now is up an eye-popping 78% since October. The rest of your Global Stock Investor portfolio also is doing well. Eight out of nine of your positions are in the black, with six out of the eight showing double-digit percentage profits.
Another Swing at a New Emerging Steel Giant in Russia
It’s a challenging time to be a stock picker in global stock markets. That’s why the bulk of your Global Bull Market Alert portfolio is invested in asset classes like currencies and commodities. I’ve only dared to venture back into the stock market just last week with Canadian fertilizer play Potash (POT) — a stock that is up even after a sharp sell off in the market on Friday.
GLOBAL STOCK INVESTOR HOTLINE UPDATE 57
This past week was an unusually steady one by recent standards, as a cautious consensus is emerging that global stock markets may have bottomed. While the emerging positive sentiment is still very fragile, there is a growing sense that the Federal Reserve is managing the credit crisis successfully. If that is the case, that indeed is good news for stocks. During the last 10 recessions, equity prices have soared on average 24% within just six months of hitting their lows. In addition, we are in a strong time of the year for stocks. On average since 1950, April has been the best-performing month of the year for the Dow, with an average gain of 1.8% for the month.
Dipping a Toe Back in the Market
Your Global Bull Market Alert portfolio has been in as firm a defensive mode as possible over most of the first quarter of 2008. By focusing on commodities and currencies, you’ve managed to avoid the meltdown in global stock markets.
GLOBAL STOCK INVESTOR HOTLINE UPDATE 56
The Dow Jones industrials climbed nearly 400 points yesterday — rising around 3.2% — to 12,654.4. Indeed, all of the major U.S. stock indexes were up more than 3%. Asian stocks also surged overnight amid a growing belief that the worst of the credit crisis is over, following a similar rally on Wall Street. The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.2% in Tokyo. Hong Kong’s index climbed 3.2%. Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines all gained more than 2%.
Betting on the Safety of the Swiss
So far this year, investing in global stock markets has been rough going. Tomorrow will mark the fifth consecutive monthly decline for all but a handful of global equity indices. With last year’s "miracle market," China now is down more than 40%. Success in global stock markets has been more about staying out of them, than it has been about sticking with last year’s winners.