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Nicholas Vardy

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The last month or so has been a transitional one for your Global Bull Market Alert portfolio. The run in commodities prices is unwinding. The dollar is strengthening, and investor appetite for risk is returning. As I pointed out in a recent edition of The Global Guru, certain historically strong technical indicators are hinting that the market may have hit bottom in mid-March.

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Overall, your Global Stock Investor holdings pulled back this week, after a strong run since late March. Your previous top performer, Potash (POT), dropped sharply from last week’s record highs as some analysts suggested that the stock had gone too far, too fast. Potash may show some weakness in the next month or so, but its target price still is comfortably above its current levels.

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As global markets begin to settle, I’m recommending that you gradually wind down your defensive positions in the Global Bull Market Alert portfolio in favor of more traditional stock picks. It’s always a challenge to distinguish turning points in the market from bear market rallies. But with this week’s pick, your portfolio will be evenly balanced between both bullish and bearish scenarios.

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There were two big stories in your Global Stock Investor portfolio this week. Potash (POT) hit yet another record high this week, soaring 16.5% on the back of rising fertilizer prices. Potash now has almost doubled since October. Millicom International (MICC) also jumped 12.2% yesterday on the back of strong earnings, as the stock awoke from its slumber.

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Wall Street shot higher last week as each of the major U.S stock indexes notched advances of more than four percent. Global markets also had one of their strongest weeks of 2008. Several stocks on my watch list have recently broken out of trading ranges. Both of your current stock positions — Canada’s Potash (POT) and Russia’s Mechel Open Joint Stock Company (MTL) fit this criteria, with Potash up 17.07% during the last two weeks, and its options up 130.20%, as of Friday’s close. As global markets gradually confirm a new uptrend, I’ve started to recommend positions in the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors. This week’s Global Bull Market Alert pick, offshore oil driller Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW), is just such a stock.

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Canada’s Potash (POT) soared 7.56% Wednesday, April 16, on news that China’s Sinofert will be buying one million metric tons of potash at $576 per metric ton. That’s a whopping $400-per-metric-ton increase from just last year.

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