Good news from the major U.S. banks and better than expected retail sales, as well as housing starts, have lit a fire under global stock markets over the past week. Investors in U.S. banks have doubled their money in the past two weeks. Fear has turned into greed overnight.
What a difference a week makes. In the same week that sentiment among retail investors hit record lows, the Dow rose 9% and the S&P 500 jumped 10.7%. A flicker of good news — better-than-expected retail sales and reports that Citigroup and Bank of America were profitable through the first two months of the quarter — was enough to send global stock markets soaring
With global stocks off to their worst start to the year since the 1930s — and other asset classes from high-yield debt to commodities following suit — it’s tough to find an asset class to be bullish on anywhere in the financial markets.
The news in global stock markets isn’t getting any better. With the S&P 500 down over 20% since the start of the year, the broad U.S. market is trading lower than when Alan Greenspan gave his famous “irrational exuberance” speech in December of 1996.
It’s a grim time for U.S stock markets. After the worst start to the year in January since the Great Depression, February turned out to be even worse. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 11.72%, its worst February since 1933. The S&P 500 didn’t do much better, ending down 11%.
Markets rallied sharply yesterday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the recession might end this year and that the Fed had no plans to nationalize banks. That lifted the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 index off of their lowest levels since 1997.