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Nicholas Vardy

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A month after markets suddenly turned to the upside, some traders — including some very big ones — have been making noises about a coming large correction in the fall. This is par for the course. After all, September and October have a particular reputation for being bad months for stocks. But as Mark Twain famously quipped: "October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."

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Global stock markets spent most of last week consolidating their recent gains. But they got a big boost on Friday after better-than-expected economic data on both housing and employment in the United States. With Asian stock markets also mostly higher overnight on improved news from Japan’s economy, I expect that the rally in global markets will resume sooner rather than later.

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U.S. markets resumed their rally this week as the S&P 500 broke through the psychologically significant 1,000 level for the first time since November. The stock market’s latest winning streak has only added to an already impressive run since early March.

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Global stock markets appeared to go into correction mode during the first half of last week, before recovering in the last two trading days. With Asian markets up overnight on the back of better than expected GDP numbers, this may have been the "pause that refreshes" before global markets resume their upward path. Bears will point out that July’s gains came on the back of unusually low volume. That said, you have tightened our stops so that you’ll lock in big gains on any sustained market pullback.

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After a remarkably strong, two-week rally which saw some global stock markets rise 12 out of the last 13 trading days, markets are shifting into consolidation mode. Some pullback is to be expected as markets digest some of the gains of the recent run-up. This may continue for the next week or two. But general market sentiment remains robust — overall a more positive outlook than I would have expected from the normally sleepy summer months.

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Global stock markets logged an impressive second consecutive week of gains with the S&P 500 surging 4.1%, marking a surprisingly strong 11% jump since July 10. Of equal importance, the S&P 500 has broken through technical resistance levels, which bodes well for its future prospects.

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