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Nicholas Vardy

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Memory of Dubai’s debt crisis faded as quickly as it came, with the VIX volatility index — a standard measure of risk — dropping back near its lows for 2009. With the U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly dropping to 10% and only 11,000 jobs lost during November, the lowest in two years, global markets are generally back on a positive footing. December also happens to be one of the strongest months of the year. Since 1950, the S&P 500’s gain in December has averaged 1.8%, rising 45 times and falling 14 times. So, I am optimistic that global markets will end the year on a positive note.

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The big news this past week was, of course, the suspension of bond payments by the highly indebted entity Dubai World. Global markets sold off sharply on the news, before Abu Dhabi stepped in to somewhat calm global markets. By yesterday, the threat of this event triggering a meltdown in global stocks had faded, and global markets came roaring back.

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The big news of the past week was Dubai’s debt crisis, which sent shockwaves throughout global stock markets last Wednesday. The troubled emirate, which splurged on flashy developments like the world’s tallest building during the credit boom, shocked investors when it announced last week that it needed at least a six-month reprieve from paying its roughly $60 billion debt.

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Your commodity-related positions in Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) and Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) traded near highs for the year this past week, as the price of gold continues to hit record highs.

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Global stocks had mixed results last week, soaring to highs for the year on Monday and Tuesday, before correcting sharply during the second half of the week. This was reflected in your Global Bull Market Alert portfolio. Most of your positions hit highs for the year early in the week, before pulling back sharply by Friday.

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So far, our fundamental investment thesis that global markets will have a strong Q4 seems back on track. Although the pullback in October was unnerving, many of your positions in high-risk stock markets like Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) hit highs for the year on Monday. Your commodity-related positions in Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) and Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) also have rallied to record highs, as the price of gold continues to soar. Yes, there will be pullbacks before now and the end of the year. But for now, enjoy the ride up.

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